It is a crucial season in Nigeria with everyone warming up for the most decisive moments just around the corner. In some couple of months winners would have clinched the people’s mandate for the different elective positions and all other things will follow. As usual we were supposed to have two big giant contending National Parties but the emergence of Peter Obi as Labour Party’s candidate has changed the game this time around with massive youths standing by him ready for a showdown.
The digital media has surely given not a few candidates and parties a voice that was not just possible in times past and Labour Party is obviously on the giving end because majority of its supporters are Youths who are generally Internet savvy.
Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar being the flag bearers of APC and PDP respectively are already having concerns about the growing popularity of Peter Obi because of the seeming voice and edge the digital media is giving him. We know this concern is true because of the attacks against Peter Obi by some of the big parties big wigs. If he wasn’t a threat they would have simply been ignored altogether. There are myriads of other contenders both in the presidential category and the other elective positions but time and space will not allow us to do justice to their profile and pedigree here.
Not Enough Fight Yet
From our observation at Elect 2.0 many of the more prominent candidates both in the National, State and Legislative levels have actually done justice to getting popular and that is why they have actually become conspicuous, but can any of these really even get close to displacing the contenders from the big parties? This is a big question that must be given credence to and analysed critically especially by this smaller contenders. I have labeled them smaller contenders because of their small base compared to the huge fan and followers of the big parties. But of a truth some of these smaller contenders are not small in status because they are high achievers who will probably outperform the big contenders when push comes to shove.
Yes at the State and legislative level some have done this before (that is win election) but note that many of these also had to latch on to the popularity and strength of those smaller ones in the particular state or legislative constituencies. APGA is a case in point which has predominance in Anambra because that was the then Ikenmba of Nnewi’s stronghold. Other example is that of Accord Party in Oyo State and Labour Party in Ondo State.
In my opinion the contenders from the smaller parties are not giving enough fight that will translate to defeating the contenders from the big parties at all and this is why.
Five Reasons Their Will Still Be A Landslide Victory For The Two Big Parties In Nigeria Except Something Is Done In This Last Hour
From the way smaller parties and their candidates are playing the game it shows that they have not learnt any lessons from history and at best they are not living with reality at all given all the facts and figures available. They are not playing this game as though they want to win or even give any serious fight for that matter. See my reasons below:
1. The smaller parties and their candidates have not yet solved the National spread problem
The two big parties have done something well and that is building a formidable structure across the 36 states. By formidable I mean strong and reliable network of loyal men and women who can die for the cause. Some smaller parties are actually big at the State level and most of these only have a grasp of one or few states. Since the smaller parties have not solved this National spread problem, I wonder what is giving them the assurance that they will somehow coast through to victory.
2. The smaller parties and their candidates do not yet have enough loyal supporters that could make them grab the thrones of power yet.
Handful loyal supporters will not help win any election. In any battle it is good to weigh the support your opponent has as against yours. If you do an honest assessment, then you can live with reality and begin to see how you can balance things up with new strategies approach.
3. By the above consequence the smaller parties do not yet have enough foot soldiers that could help influence others to cast their votes in favour of their preferred candidates.
The bigger parties have done well to have an army of not just voters but canvassers that can influence others that respect them to vote for their Party and candidates. The smaller parties must solve this problem if they hope to pull any meaningful competition in the coming election.
4. The smaller parties are trying to deploy the same strategies the two big parties have already mastered.
You should know that you can’t beat PDP and APC in this game of numbers using the same grass root approach. They have already gone ahead of you establish their influence Ward by Ward oiling their seeming formidable machineries with enough dose of cool currencies with a promise of more to come as the election nears.
5. The small parties have not yet taken advantage of the digital media to the fullest.
I still see some small parties and candidates waste their limited resources on the traditional media. They should have known that they can’t outspend the big players on this media because of their limited fund. There is this new media, the digital media where with innovation these smaller parties could flex their muscles, be on the same pedestal or even beat the big players to it but alas they are still playing the game on this media just like the big players are playing it. The big players are using the digital media only as an alternative source of information broadcast and that is exactly what these small players and candidates are doing.
If the smaller parties and their candidates are going to pull anything meaningful at the coming election they must change their strategies at these dine minutes. Look at the critical points above and be as objective as possible in trying to solve them. There is sure light at the end of the tunnel for those who prepare. One of the greatest philosopher that ever walked the earth by the name Paul of Tarsus, says, “Do not fight like one beating the air but fight as though you want to win.
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Jerry Dan Goldman is the Chief Consultant/ CEO, Alive Destiny Media and its subsidiaries. He is a Brand/ Digital Strategist helping Organisations and brands navigate the murky waters of Brand Communication and Digital Marketing, creating a dominant market and online presence that gets the result. To dive more into his deep insights in the field of Marketing/ Digital Communications visit www.alivedestinymedia.com.ng/blog